Jay, It Ain't So!

NBC is determined to do things differently, no matter the cost. Last year, after the writers’ strike, they pooh-poohed the pilot process, instead choosing to order shows straight to series. That bet clearly didn’t pay off, as the network’s ratings are down by double digits and they don’t have a bona-fide hit on the schedule save football. Now comes the announcement that Jay Leno won’t be leaving after all, with the Peacock making history by stripping a new talk show at 10pm in the fall. Thanks, NBC. At least in late night, it was easier to avoid Leno, who never met a predictable punchline he didn’t like. Now he’ll be plastered all over prime time five nights a week.

And what happens if this bold experiment doesn’t work? A major impetus for this decision is that it saves the network millions of dollars that would normally go toward license fees and per-episode costs of an expensive drama series. Which means that they probably won’t be spending much on development in the near future. Which means that they may be stuck with this show for some time even if the ratings stink. There’s a big difference between a late night talk show that viewers fall asleep to and a prime time show that they make an appointment to watch (or at least set a DVR season pass for) every week. It’s going to take a lot more than the five million or so viewers who tune in to Leno each night to make it a success in prime time. Would you choose to watch Leno exercise his horrible interview technique over an episode of Lost—or even Numb3rs for that matter? I think NBC will learn before too long that the answer to that question is a resounding no.